Friday, February 23, 2007

On Climate Models

At a Glance: Climate modelling

*The scientific consensus is that the observed warming of the Earth during the past half-century is mostly due to human emissions of greenhouse gases

*Predicting climate change depends on sophisticated computer models developed over the past 50 years

*Climate models are based on the Navier–Stokes equations for fluid flow, which are solved numerically on a grid covering the globe

*These models have been very successful in simulating the past climate, giving researchers confidence in their predictions

*The most likely value for the global temperature increase by 2100 is in the range 1.4–5.8 °C, which could have catastrophic consequences

One thing is certain: These models can predict the future better than a wingnut can in his head. It's the math stupid. or as one commenter on my novel said, "Everyone knows most conservatives are illiterate," scientifically for sure that is the case.



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