Sunday, October 30, 2005

Dr. Gray

Dr. Gray there says:

I’m not disputing that there has been global warming. There was a lot of global warming in the 1930s and ’40s, and then there was a slight global cooling from the middle ’40s to the early ’70s. And there has been warming since the middle ’70s, especially in the last 10 years. But this is natural, due to ocean circulation changes and other factors. It is not human induced.

"I've spent the past 15 years studying the effect of ocean circulation on climate, in past, future and present, and I have many publications on this," Says Stefan Rahmstorf Professor of Physics of the Oceans at Potsdam University. "A change in ocean circulation redistributes heat in the climate system, but has only a small effect on the global mean temperature. E.g., an increase in Atlantic thermohaline circulation would have warmed the North Atlantic region but cooled the Southern Hemisphere, because there is simply more heat transported from the Southern Hemisphere into the North Atlantic then. I would ask Dr. Gray to point me to a single scientific paper which shows how 20th Century global warming could be explained by "ocean circulation changes". If there is no such peer-reviewed paper (and I certainly do not know any), then I would ask him to refrain from making such public claims about it. I would ask Dr. Gray how the ocean circulation has changed, and what the evidence for this is. I would also ask him to specify what the "other factors" are that explain the recent global warming, and point me to peer-reviewed papers demonstrating this. And finally, I'd ask him how he knows that "it is not human-induced" - this sounds like a very definite statement, so I would like to know what the supporting scientific evidence is - given that it is well-established physics that the amount of greenhouse gases which we released to the atmosphere has a radiative effect that can easily explain all the observed global warming. Would not any sober and unbiased analyst of the scientific evidence conclude that at least it is quite possible that the warming is human-induced? It makes me highly suspicious if someone claims absolute certainty that it's not, without giving any rational argument as to why he believes this. (And strange the interviewer let him get away with such a claim without asking: what makes you conclude that?)"

Indeed. Typical wingnuttery naysaying bunk on Gray's end. More here.

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